在役油气管道改输CO2定量风险评价研究

Research on quantitative risk assessment of repurposing in-service oil and gas pipelines for CO2 transport

  • 摘要: 为实现“双碳”目标,利用在役油气管道改输CO2成为加速碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage,CCUS)发展的关键途径。当管道介质置换为CO2时,因物性差异将面临新的风险挑战。目前现有管道风险评估体系难以满足工程需求,有必要开展改输CO2管道风险评价技术方法研究,解决CO2改输场景下的风险评估难题。本文基于油气管道风险评估经验,系统梳理国内外CO2管道风险评价技术进展,深入研究在役管道改输CO2风险特性和风险变化,构建了一套针对在役油气管道改输CO2的定量风险评估方法,识别改输CO2管道的腐蚀、裂纹扩展、历史缺陷等区别于原管道的不同风险程度;指出沿用天然气管道历史数据计算失效概率的局限性,提出贝叶斯网络与修正因子的概率优化方法;明确改输管道的失效后果模拟需基于在役管道地理信息,并考虑复杂地形下重气特性,选用合适的模拟工具,重新划定防护距离,形成了适用于在役管道改输CO₂的定量风险评价技术体系,为改输CO2管道风险评价工作提供技术方法,为进一步推动CCUS项目提供理论和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To achieve the "dual carbon" goals, repurposing in-service oil and gas pipelines for CO2 transport is a key approach to accelerate development of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). Replacing the pipeline medium with CO2 introduces new risk challenges due to its distinct physical properties. Current pipeline risk assessment systems are inadequate for these engineering requirements. Therefore, research on risk assessment methods tailored to pipelines repurposed for CO2 transport is essential to address these challenges effectively. Based on oil and gas pipeline risk assessment experience, advances in domestic and international CO2 pipeline risk assessment technologies were systematically reviewed. The risk characteristics and changes resulting from repurposing in-service pipelines for CO2 transport were analyzed in depth, and a quantitative risk assessment methodology for such repurposing was developed. Distinct risk levels related to corrosion, crack propagation, and historical defects were identified. The limitations of using natural gas pipeline historical data for failure probability calculations were highlighted, and a probability optimization method combining Bayesian networks and correction factors was proposed. Failure consequence simulations for repurposed pipelines were specified to rely on the geographical information of in-service pipelines, with simulation tools selected based on heavy gas properties and complex terrain. Protection distances were redefined, establishing a quantitative risk assessment system tailored for pipelines repurposed for CO2 transport. These technical methods provide theoretical and practical support for advancing CCUS projects.

     

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