动态风险的长输管道安全间距优化模型研究及应用

Research and application of an optimization model for safety clearance of long-distance pipelines based on dynamic risk assessment

  • 摘要: 随着我国城镇化进程加速,管道沿线人口密度与环境复杂性显著增加,传统“一刀切”的安全间距标准难以适应动态风险变化,制约土地资源高效利用与城市发展规划。本文针对该问题,构建了一种基于动态风险评价的长输管道安全间距优化模型。通过集成多源监测数据建立动态风险指标体系,并采用组合赋权法量化风险等级,进而建立风险值与间距调整系数的函数关系,实现安全间距的动态差异化调整。以“西气东输”某120 km管段为例进行实证分析,结果表明:该模型可精准识别高风险区与低风险区,在保障安全的前提下,使总体安全缓冲区面积减少约12%,释放土地价值约1.35×108元。研究进一步提出了与GIS集成的“一张图”可视化平台构想,为管道规划、安全管控及土地集约利用提供科学依据,推动管道安全管理从静态合规向动态风险防控转变。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid urbanization in China, increasing population density and environmental complexity along pipeline corridors have rendered traditional "one-size-fits-all" safety clearance standards inadequate for adapting to dynamic risk variations, thereby constraining efficient land use and urban planning. To address this challenge, an optimization model for safety clearance of long-distance pipelines was developed based on dynamic risk assessment. A dynamic risk index system was established by integrating multi-source monitoring data, and risk levels were quantified using a combination weighting method. A functional relationship between risk values and clearance adjustment coefficients was then constructed to enable dynamic, differentiated safety clearance adjustments. An empirical analysis was performed on a 120-km segment of the "West-East Gas Pipeline". The results demonstrated that the model accurately distinguished high- and low-risk areas, reducing the total safety buffer zone by approximately 12% while releasing land valued at about RMB 135 million, all without compromising safety. Additionally, the concept of a "one-map" GIS-based visualization platform was proposed to support scientific pipeline planning, safety management, and efficient land use, promoting a shift from static compliance to dynamic risk prevention and control in pipeline safety management.

     

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