基于马尔可夫模型的LNG外输增压关键设备运行可靠性评价方法

Operational reliability evaluation method for key LNG export compression equipment based on Markov model

  • 摘要: 传统可靠性评价模型侧重于设备处于理想稳态的情形,难以全面刻画LNG高压蒸发气(boil-off gas,BOG)增压机系统在“冲击—响应—恢复”全过程中的动态行为。针对这一局限性,本研究旨在构建一种能够同时涵盖系统脆弱阶段与恢复阶段的综合运行可靠性评价方法。基于马尔可夫可修过程与多状态系统理论框架,引入系统恢复特性评价维度。通过分析系统在遭受外界干扰后的状态演化规律,利用微积分与累积概率理论,构建了包含抵抗能力、吸收能力、脆弱性和可恢复性4个维度的运行可靠性评价指标体系。以国内某大型LNG接收站“一用一备”模式的高压BOG增压机系统为例进行算例分析。研究发现,采用固定主备机组的运行模式比随机切换模式具有更强的抵抗能力;而备用机组的自然退化(非完美备用)会显著降低系统的吸收能力和可恢复性。该评价模型能够有效量化LNG外输增压系统在干扰下的动态可靠性表现。研究表明,在同等维修资源下,确保备用机组处于良好状态并优化主备运行策略,是提升系统整体运行可靠性与韧性的关键。

     

    Abstract: Conventional reliability evaluation models focus on equipment operating under ideal steady-state conditions, failing to fully characterize the dynamic behaviors of high-pressure LNG boil-off gas (BOG) compressor systems throughout the complete "shock-response-recovery" cycle. To address this limitation, this study develops an integrated operational reliability evaluation method covering both the vulnerable and recovery stages of the system. Utilizing the theoretical framework of Markov repairable processes and multi-state systems, an evaluation dimension for system recovery characteristics is introduced. The state evolution rules of the system following external disturbances are analyzed, and an operational reliability evaluation index system spanning four dimensions-resistance capacity, absorption capacity, vulnerability, and recoverability-is established on the basis of calculus and cumulative probability theory. Numerical case analysis is performed on a high-pressure BOG compressor system with one operational unit and one standby unit at a large LNG terminal in China. The results reveal that the operation mode with fixed main and standby units delivers higher resistance capacity compared to the random switching mode. Furthermore, natural degradation of the standby unit (imperfect standby state) drastically weakens the absorption capacity and recoverability of the overall system. The proposed evaluation model effectively quantifies the dynamic operational reliability performance of the LNG export compression system under external disturbances. This study demonstrates that, given identical maintenance resources, maintaining standby units in sound operating conditions and optimizing main-standby operation strategies are critical to improving overall system reliability and resilience.

     

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