数据驱动背景下的油气管道风险评价挑战

Data-driven: challenges in pipeline risk assessment for oil and gas

  • 摘要: 随着油气管道建设规模不断扩大以及运营环境日益复杂,传统的风险评价方法逐渐暴露出其局限性,难以满足现代管道安全管理对精确度、实时性和适应性的需求。为了实现风险的高效预警,通过深入分析数据驱动的风险评价方法在油气管道领域的发展与应用,指出了当前技术应用中的优势、挑战与发展方向。研究表明:基于数据驱动的模型在管道风险评估中表现出更强的适应性和准确性,能够提供更为细致和实时的风险预警。然而,数据驱动方法比较依赖于大量高质量的数据,容易出现过拟合问题,且由于模型的“黑箱”特性使其解释性较差,对制定安全关键决策产生不利的影响。本文提出的发展建议可为数据驱动背景下的油气管道风险管理提供全新的视角和解决方案。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous expansion of oil and gas pipeline construction and the increasing complexity of operational environments, traditional risk assessment methods have gradually become limited, thus failing to satisfy the demands for accuracy, timeliness, and adaptability in modern pipeline safety management. To achieve efficient early risk warning, this paper comprehensively analyzed the development and application of data-driven risk assessment methods, summarizing the advantages, challenges, and future directions of current technological applications. The study found that data-driven models exhibit stronger adaptability and accuracy in pipeline risk assessment, allowing more detailed and real-time risk warnings. However, these methods rely highly on large volumes of high-quality data and are prone to overfitting. Moreover, the"black- box "nature of the models causes poor interpretability, bringing challenges for making critical safety-related decisions. This paper proposes several development suggestions to address the issues and challenges faced by intelligent pipeline networks in terms of both safety and economic operation.

     

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