机理与数据融合驱动的原油集输管道腐蚀失效预测

Corrosion failure prediction of crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines driven by mechanism and data

  • 摘要: 随着油田深度开发及多元化采油方式的推广应用, 地面集输系统腐蚀环境日趋复杂, 原油集输管道受腐蚀危害引发的问题日益突出。通过对原油集输系统中掺水管道腐蚀失效数值的模拟计算, 考虑原油集输管道冲刷腐蚀与电化学腐蚀之间存在的协同影响机制, 以11组管道特征参数为腐蚀失效特征对象, 以冲刷腐蚀速率、电化学腐蚀速率、综合腐蚀速率为预测指标, 构建腐蚀机理与特征数据融合的原油集输管道腐蚀失效数据集, 并基于Kohonen算法和MEA算法优化的BP神经网络, 分别建立机理与数据融合驱动的原油集输管道冲刷腐蚀速率、电化学腐蚀速率及综合腐蚀速率预测模型, 与多种预测模型进行对比分析。结果表明: 优化后的Kohonen聚类算法以管道规格与敷设方式为潜在主导特征, 划分具有不同失效管道特征的四类腐蚀失效层级, 由机理与数据融合驱动的Kohonen-MEA-BP模型在原油集输管道冲刷腐蚀速率、电化学腐蚀速率及综合腐蚀速率预测中均具有最优预测性能, 定量评价指标MSE分别为0.001 2、4.8×10-6、0.000 3, 预测误差均在10%以内。同时, 通过模型揭示了不同腐蚀失效层级对应的腐蚀速率变化规律, 表征了原油集输管道的腐蚀失效耦合机制以冲刷腐蚀占主导, 为油田原油集输系统的数智化建设和完整性管理提供了有益参考。

     

    Abstract: With the deepening development of oilfields and the application of diversified oil extraction methods, the corrosion environment of the surface gathering and transportation system becomes increasingly complex, causing frequent leakage accidents due to corrosion damage to crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines. In this study, by establishing numerical simulation calculations of corrosion failure in water-injection pipelines within the crude oil gathering and transportation system, considering the synergistic influence mechanism between erosion-corrosion and electrochemical corrosion, using 11 pipeline characteristic parameters as corrosion failure features, and erosion-corrosion rate, electrochemical corrosion rate, and comprehensive corrosion rate as prediction indicators, a dataset integrating corrosion mechanisms and characteristic data for crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines was constructed. Using the BP neural network optimized by Kohonen and MEA algorithms, prediction models driven by mechanism and data fusion for erosion-corrosion rate, electrochemical corrosion rate, and comprehensive corrosion rate of crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines were established and compared against various prediction models. The result shows that the optimized Kohonen clustering algorithm, taking pipeline specifications and laying methods as potential dominant features, divides the corrosion failure into four levels according to different pipeline characteristics. The Kohonen-MEA-BP model driven by mechanism and data performs best in predicting the erosion-corrosion rate, electrochemical corrosion rate, and comprehensive corrosion rate of crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines, with quantitative evaluation indicators MSE of 0.001 2, 4.8×10-6, and 0.000 3, respectively. Besides, the model reveals the variation patterns of erosion-corrosion rate and comprehensive corrosion rate corresponding to different corrosion failure levels, indicating that the corrosion failure coupling mechanism of water-injected pipelines is dominated by erosion-corrosion. This study provides a reference for the integrity management of crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines under the development of digital construction.

     

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