Ifuzzy-DEMATEL法埋地油气管道外腐蚀风险评估

External corrosion risk assessment of buried oil and gas pipelines by Ifuzzy-DEMATEL method

  • 摘要: 油气管道在运行过程中,外部土壤环境等因素常导致管道存在外部腐蚀的风险,严重时会引发管道失效,造成经济损失、环境污染甚至人员伤亡等严重后果。为保障管道的安全运行和长期稳定性,梳理管道外腐蚀风险来源、确定风险评估方法至关重要。基于对管道腐蚀风险来源的识别与分析,建立了由3项一级指标及14项二级指标构成的管道失效风险评估体系,提出了Ifuzzy-DEMATEL风险评估方法;通过分析各指标之间的影响关系,得出各指标在评估指标体系中的重要程度;对中心度进行归一化处理得到各指标的权重,结合模糊综合评估的方法对外腐蚀管道进行风险评估。通过案例分析,对比传统的模糊综合评估方法,验证了该方法的有效性,评估结果与现场风险评估等级一致。本研究可为油气管道外腐蚀防控提供理论参考。

     

    Abstract: In the process of pipeline operation, due to the external soil environment and other factors, the oil and gas pipeline has the risk of external corrosion potential. In serious cases, it will cause pipeline failure, resulting in economic losses, environmental pollution, casualties, and other adverse effects. To ensure safe operation and long-term stability, it is crucial to review the risk sources of external pipeline corrosion and conduct risk assessment methods. In this study, firstly, the risk sources of oil and gas pipeline corrosion were identified and deeply analyzed, and a pipeline failure risk assessment system consisting of three primary indicators and 14 secondary indicators was established. Then, the Ifuzzy-DEMATEL risk assessment method was proposed to analyze the influence relationship between the indicators and derive the importance degree of each indicator in the assessment index system. Finally, to get the weight of each indicator, the centrality was normalized, and the risk assessment of the external corrosion pipeline was carried out by combining the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method. Based on case studies 'analysis, the proposed risk assessment method improves the accuracy of the conventional assessment results that failed to reach due to neglecting the interaction and joint influence of the influencing factors and complies with on- site risk assessments. This research thus provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the safety management of oil and gas pipelines affected by external corrosion.

     

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